US-led intervention in Iraq not likely to work

The US-led military action against IS was unlikely to work and could have been avoided if the main regional actors had confronted the extremist group, according to one of Australia’s leading experts on the Middle East.

“I personally do not think the current US-led strategy is likely to work, simply because the situation is so complex on the ground,” said Professor Amin Saikal AM, FASSA, Director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies.

“Although the West has been outraged by what has transpired in Iraq and Syria, an alternative to US-led intervention would have been a regional solution.

“Despite rivalries between regional actors, they all face a common enemy in IS. This could have become a factor in prompting them to take the lead in countering IS, and would have provided a basis for co-operation which the region needs very badly for its long term stability,” Professor Saikal said at the launch of his new book Zone of Crisis: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran & Iraq by the ANU Chancellor, Professor The Hon. Gareth Evans, AC, QC.

Professor Saikal said the current turbulent events in Iraq go back to the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq.

“IS has risen from a vacuum which was generated very much as a result of the mismanagement of the post-2003 invasion,” he said.

“I think the whole tragedy can be directly linked to the manner in which the Iraqi dictator, Saddam Hussein, was overthrown and the Iraqi state was destroyed. I think those who led the invasion bear an enormous responsibility for what is happening in Iraq today.”

“The rise of IS may well prove to be an aberration, but nonetheless it is likely to remain a major source of tension and instability in the region for some time”.

Zone of Crisis: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran & Iraq provides an in-depth perspective on the interrelated history, politics, culture and current affairs of the four states and is available in most Australian book stores or can be ordered online here.